As we wait with anticipation for the Prime Minister’s announcement on Monday as to how the lockdown might be lifted by reference to data not dates, we thought it would help to have a reminder of how numbers are stacking up.

Worldwide cases now number over 111 million and deaths are a little shy of 2.5 million and of course the country which leads the field in cases is the USA at approaching 29 million with half a million deaths.

The UK is still a major hotspot and now has recorded 4.1 million cases and deaths now number 120365 including today. These figures are big but there is light at the end of the tunnel. Whilst new cases seem to be hovering around the 10-12000 mark, deaths are definitely on the wane with today’s new deaths numbering 445.

How many deaths a day should we be seeing to enable lockdown restrictions to be relaxed? We need deaths to come down to less than 100 a day. The point is that now getting on for 20 million have been vaccinated and with million having had the virus so presumably having developed antibodies, it could be that approaching one third of the population could now be protected, with more on the way.

What we need to know is what level of resistance we can hope for in those who have been vaccinated and for long it can be expected to last. Unfortunately since these are time based questions, we need to time to pass before we can determine the answer!

But they do represent what we need to know.

We cannot rest on our laurels yet – the UK is still number 7 in the list of new cases per day.

Once lockdown restrictions start to be lifted a whole new raft of questions will arise – to what extent is social-distancing still going to be required and what will happen with businesses who insist on their staff and customers being vaccinated before they can come in?

It will be an important week next week. For the moment the spring flower season is just getting going; let’s hope you have the opportunity to enjoy them!

Adrian Leopard 20-02-21

Photo Ali G Rashidi