19 May 2022

Opinion from Adrian Leopard & Co

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Al fresco gets your vote! But is there still risk?
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Al fresco gets your vote! But is there still risk?

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It’s great to see that hospitality is not dead! However, make sure while enjoying that you do not end up catching the dreaded lurgy

We are now well into the first week of trading for hospitality businesses in England this year. It was a week we all wondered about – what would happen? Would it do well, badly? Would the weather be with us or against?

Well, it’s all good, it seems. The weather hasn’t been bad – it’s been chilly with days starting off with frost but really nothing that a good coat could not solve. And the people have voted with their feet – to get out of lockdown by going to the pub.

Sales are up. Basically the market is something like 50% up on the equivalent dates in 2019. This is really good news for the hospitality industry and very good news for the businesses which have been permitted to open with their sales being outdoors. The 60% of businesses which have not been able to open yet will be keeping their fingers crossed that the new found enthusiasm for going out will last; it would be a problem really if this week’s excellent results are tarnished by things dropping back, perhaps to even below par, especially if the weather does not hold.

The re-found success of the pubs, however, has not failed to attract the gaze of the scientists who are already saying that they have concerns that the people all getting together again and too close could result in a resurgence of covid-19 which could in turn lead to a third wave if not controlled.

62% or so having had their first dose of vaccination means that there are still 38% who have not so there is still a huge risk of transmission of the disease so it is still essential for people to be careful, even in outside settings. The new cases and deaths have sort of levelled off and the new cases are still counting in the thousands per day. Deaths averaging just over 30 a day for the week have certainly come down to a more manageable level but the figure is still too high.

However as numbers do continue to gently lower the thoughts of people have come around much more to whether there is still a risk and to what extent they are prepared to undertake the risk. That depends of course on your age, your state of health and possibly other factors. The fact remains that long covid is still a reality with people suffering from a variety of ailments long after they recovered from covid-19 and in many cases those ailments have themselves proved fatal. Unless the government steps in and makes a covid passport compulsory in certain circumstances, people will have to make up their own mind if they are prepared to take the risk.

It is in fact quite surprising how the objectors to restricting attendance at functions for example are getting so voluble. They demand that they continue to be able to attend a function notwithstanding that they have not been vaccinated, nor will they be, so that those who perceive a risk are forced into making a decision which they should not be forced to make at all – whether to subject themselves to risk. And most people’s assessment of risk will be slightly difference.

At the end of the day, if in doubt don’t go out.

Adrian Leopard 15-04-21

Photo Ranjith Alingal

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Adrian Leopard & Company is the trading name of Alderney Offshore Ltd, a company registered in Alderney, Channel Islands number 1220.

Address P O Box 1027, Alderney GY9 3AS

Registered Office Seldomin, Longis Road, Alderney GY9 3YB.

Adrian Leopard & Co is represented in the UK by 3CL (UK) Ltd trading as Adrian Leopard Associates.

Telephone enquiries may be made on 08449-4-08449 or 01684-230360.

E Mail [email protected]

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