26 May 2022

Opinion from Adrian Leopard & Co

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Covid really playing with our minds now
Adrian Leopard 383

Covid really playing with our minds now

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We are not really any wiser as to which way the pandemic is going at the moment. Weird!

A couple of weeks ago smiling tv reporters were telling us that the toll of new cases of covid-19 had dropped “off the edge of a cliff”.

Indeed the numbers were as startling as they were difficult to understand. Even the experts were uncertain as to why this had happened. Since then we have all been watching the daily figures with interest and just as suddenly as they dropped, they appeared to level off, up one day or two and down the next. It has been impossible to predict just where things are going.

Well, the conundrum continues because following yesterday’s results, the new cases for the seven days then ending were almost identical to the seven days before, a drop of just 4191 or 2.2% according to UK government statistics. Today the trend has changed to upwards even though the actual number is down! Patients admitted to hospital in the same period were also down by 1006, a much more respectable 15.9%. Unfortunately deaths did not follow the same path and they were up by 139 or 28.5% to 627.

Where is the acid test in all of this? As we have pointed out before, you get lies, damned lies and statistics. There are defects in the new cases and hospitalisations because of other conditions but perhaps the deaths is more specific because the cause of a death is rather easier to be sure about. They are up.

There is another statistic which is rather worrying and that is the number of first jabs being given. At 35665 jabs yesterday, the programme looks like it has almost hit the buffers and there are still many people not jabbed at all. More second jabs were given than first jabs, about five times as many.

So what should we make of all of this? Quite simply, you should probably be confused. Will today’s results due in an hour or so make a difference? Anything is possible. As it is a weekend the tendency is for figures to be down so that would not be a surprise.

But there is another feature coming into play in about a week and that is the likely rise in numbers from Scotland and Wales now that restrictions are being lifted there. If those figures rise they will be very real because people are now getting out and about more.

And more and more people are beginning to use the airports to fly abroad so there is every prospect that will have an effect as well.

But it is difficult to know how people can suggest that the pandemic is now over when 600000 to 700000 new cases are being reported every day world wide.

Adrian Leopard 08-08-21

Photo Markus Winkler

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Adrian Leopard & Company is the trading name of Alderney Offshore Ltd, a company registered in Alderney, Channel Islands number 1220.

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Adrian Leopard & Co is represented in the UK by 3CL (UK) Ltd trading as Adrian Leopard Associates.

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