19 May 2022

Opinion from Adrian Leopard & Co

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Figures depressing as R goes up
Adrian Leopard 303

Figures depressing as R goes up

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Big problems ahead – that is for sure

The thought of the lifting of all restrictions on 21st June is becoming very worrying indeed.

The R number is increasing – now between 1.2 and 1.4. This is bad.

New cases in the UK have risen by 63% in the past seven days – another 44009. Deaths happily have been contained somewhat but putting aside the Channel Islands which are unrepresentatively small, the UK is romping ahead in terms of growth of a third wave. How is this possible when so many people have been vaccinated?

Indeed, most of Europe is showing a decline in new cases but once again not Britain.

The big question I ask is this – if the road map is not to be reversed, how is the present rate of increase to be contained? Again this morning the vaccines minister was keen to point out that 75% vaccinated means 25% not and if 85% of those vaccinated are protected, then 15% are not. The mathematics of that are that only circa 64% of those vaccinated are protected which is equivalent to 11.25% of the adult population. As he put it, there is still a lot of head room for further transmission. Add the 11.25% to the 25% not yet vaccinated, and you have 36.25% of the adult population unprotected. Add to that the juvenile population along with an aggressive Indian variant and the scope for catching the virus is enormous.

We are also being told that 1 in 3 people carrying covid are a-symptomatic. In other words neither you nor they will know that they have it.

The great worry must now be that the government’s enthusiasm to bring the restrictions to an end means a massive free for all for covid-19, one which it will probably win. The battlefield is setting itself up again and unfortunately it is one where conventional weapons will be quite useless.

Adrian Leopard 11-06-21

Photo Chuanchai Pundej

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Adrian Leopard & Company is the trading name of Alderney Offshore Ltd, a company registered in Alderney, Channel Islands number 1220.

Address P O Box 1027, Alderney GY9 3AS

Registered Office Seldomin, Longis Road, Alderney GY9 3YB.

Adrian Leopard & Co is represented in the UK by 3CL (UK) Ltd trading as Adrian Leopard Associates.

Telephone enquiries may be made on 08449-4-08449 or 01684-230360.

E Mail [email protected]

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