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28 November 2021

Opinion from Adrian Leopard & Co

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Future of the travel industry
Adrian Leopard 238

Future of the travel industry

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This is a subject over which there is constant speculation but with little real information to rely on for predictions!

There is no doubt about it but the travel industry has every reason to feel glum at the moment and this is not going to change any time soon.

Of course one man’s meat is another man’s poison and the new quarantine arrangements surely ought to bring delight to those hoteliers whose hotels are going to be used for quarantine purposes, beginning shortly. Sadly for the hotel industry it sounds like a relatively small number of hotels are going to be used for this project but who knows how this may change?

For the travelling public, the prospect of coming to the UK and having to quarantine in a hotel for ten days at one’s own cost is unattractive in the extreme and pretty pointless for short holidays – as soon as you come out it would be time to go home again. In fact if you are willing and able to put up with this quarantining, then you must have a very compelling reason to travel to the UK.

But that is not where it is going to end, is it? The travel industry has come to realise that instead of things getting easier, they are in fact getting tighter and more and more countries throughout the world are demanding quarantine measures and probably will continue to do so until vaccinations have really caught on and the disease has become something of a minor inconvenience.

Recent views expressed by organisations in the field suggest that the travel industry is not really going to get back off the ground properly until 2023 and some bodies are forecasting that it will be 2025 before world travel gets back to “normal”. The well-known organisation IATA has now amended its predictions to say that they expect only a 13% recovery in flying in 2021.

We hear constant talking about holidays for 2021. It is completely premature to come to any conclusions at the moment as no one really has any idea where the world vaccination programme will be and it is certainly going to be necessary for a world-wide improvement in this, not just a British one, before normal services are resumed.

So where does the British holiday industry stand? It will depend on how the vaccination programme works out. The British programme is doing well so it may be that the country has a really reduced risk of coronavirus by the summer or autumn. Is this going to be the great “staycation take-off”? And if the country is regarded as Covid-19 safe, may be this will enable foreign visitors to start returning to us as well.

This really is a pot pourri situation for the future and there is a great prize really at the end of it so it must be really worth while getting the vaccinations done and the people in a position where the transmission of the virus is right down, variants and all and it is the variants probably which will buck the system and make it difficult to step back from social-distancing. So with that in mind, perhaps the government is right to impose the new quarantine system and in particular the penalties for those who break the rules.

As to the long term future, the world is full of beautiful places and the lure of foreign travel is always going to be there. It will return, no doubt of that. Who in the world who has seen the grand canyon has failed to gasp at his first view, particularly with those fabulous colours as the sun starts to set? The only question is when will it be safe enough for people to grasp the nettle and travel like they used to?

Adrian Leopard 10-02-21

Photo Launde Morel

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Company Data

Adrian Leopard & Company is the trading name of Alderney Offshore Ltd, a company registered in Alderney, Channel Islands number 1220.

Address P O Box 1027, Alderney GY9 3AS

Registered Office Seldomin, Longis Road, Alderney GY9 3YB.

Adrian Leopard & Co is represented in the UK by 3CL (UK) Ltd trading as Adrian Leopard Associates.

Telephone enquiries may be made on 08449-4-08449 or 01684-230360.

E Mail [email protected]

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