19 May 2022

Opinion from Adrian Leopard & Co

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Improvement in covid position in UK is not mirrored in Europe
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Improvement in covid position in UK is not mirrored in Europe

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Everyone is wondering what summer holidays they can take!

The continuing news that the numbers of new cases and deaths are dropping is without doubt music to our ears but unfortunately we must not drop our guard yet – not by a long way.

Careful scrutiny of the Johns Hopkins data shows that new cases continue to come down but the numbers are tending to level off somewhat. What is more of a problem is that children are already being sent home from school to self isolate which clearly shows that there is plenty of virus still out there in the community. It may well be that new case numbers will in fact start to increase again.

On the deaths front, however, the news is more encouraging. Deaths have dropped although this week’s figures were not encouraging as had been hoped. After double digit figures last weekend, they have gone up again and today’s figure is 175. Sadly the number this week has been more or less level which is certainly disappointing. What we do not know at the moment is what is going to be considered an acceptable level of either deaths or new cases to ensure that the government road map continues to be viable.

What we do know is that vaccinations continue apace and the statistics show that the vaccine is working because the rate of new cases and deaths in older people is dropping more quickly than in younger people.

It is in the knowledge that vaccinations are working that we have the light at the end of the tunnel. However, whilst we are beginning to see some relaxations of conditions in Europe, central Europe is in a dire position with new cases and hospitals being overwhelmed. The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are all doing pretty badly at the moment.

So in terms of summer holidays, it is likely that travel restrictions are going to remain in place; those restrictions will include travelling into other countries and almost certainly, travelling into the UK. We do not at the moment know what the approach of the British governments are going to be in relation to incomers – just because our own numbers are dropping because of vaccinations, we still do not want to be allowing in hoards of people who may well be carrying the virus, and most particularly possible new variants.

So for your summer holidays, the government is still making it clear that overseas travel is a highly risky prospect and the sirens of welcome from countries like Cyprus and Greece should not be allowed to lull you into a false sense of security; some holiday if to get back into the country you still have to self-isolate for fourteen days!

If you really want to book a holiday, then staycation is likely to be the optimum proposal at the moment. Mind you, because of the uncertainties of foreign travel there could be something of a rollercoaster over pricing in the short term. Staycation prices are much higher this year – possibly an attempt by the industry to recover past losses but they may drop if the lure of foreign holidays becomes a more attractive proposition. We will await the government’s pearls of wisdom on the subject with anticipation!

Adrian Leopard 12-03-21

Photo Vojtech Bruzek

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Adrian Leopard & Company is the trading name of Alderney Offshore Ltd, a company registered in Alderney, Channel Islands number 1220.

Address P O Box 1027, Alderney GY9 3AS

Registered Office Seldomin, Longis Road, Alderney GY9 3YB.

Adrian Leopard & Co is represented in the UK by 3CL (UK) Ltd trading as Adrian Leopard Associates.

Telephone enquiries may be made on 08449-4-08449 or 01684-230360.

E Mail [email protected]

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