19 May 2022

Opinion from Adrian Leopard & Co

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ONS surmises that peak of covid cases is past
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ONS surmises that peak of covid cases is past

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Government website really is excellent in terms of giving you the statistical information you need

ONS data is usually somewhat in arrears. This is probably because they prefer to wait for a stream of data rather than just jump on the first information available.

It must be difficult at the moment to determine what is happening and we have been saying this for a couple of weeks now. The daily number of new cases has hovered around the 20000-30000 range for a couple of weeks or more now. Today’s figure is down on both of the previous two days but the seven day trend is well up by 6.9% and is now over 200000 in the past week.

Deaths are 2.2% down which is good and patients admitted 2% up which is less good. All in all we seem to be hovering at a point which has been going on for quite some time – the freefall drop came about from 16th July; it lasted a week and has remained more or less the same ever since. Deaths have shown a small increase in the same period but happily falling back in the past week and patients admitted is just slightly down. I imagine this is what the NHS would call having the virus under control, after a fashion at least.

But it is not over and it is not necessarily safe. With such a high rate of transmission, the risk of coming into contact with an infected person must be very high at the moment and the ONS reckons that there are some 800000 people with the virus in the country at the moment.

The government website is brilliant in terms of the information it provides to enable you to follow these statistics for yourself and you can find it here:

It usually updates at around 4pm in the afternoon when the latest 4 hour period figures are released.

You can even see maps showing the number of cases per 100000 and by putting in your own postcode you can see how your own area is doing. This is useful tool because if it is high that may be a good reason to lay low. And it is a very detailed map indeed on a large scale so it is easy to spot your own location and check the towns around you by just moving the map around. You may be very surprised by what you see.

So before you go anywhere it may be a good idea to check the rate of disease per 100000 for your destination. Then make an informed decision about whether you want to go there. The white areas are basically clear. Our photo today depicts such an area!

Adrian Leopard 14-08-21

Photo Dane Deaner

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Adrian Leopard & Co is represented in the UK by 3CL (UK) Ltd trading as Adrian Leopard Associates.

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