19 May 2022

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Reminiscences – what have we learned with 400 blogs? It is still a covid world but a changing one
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Reminiscences – what have we learned with 400 blogs? It is still a covid world but a changing one

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Where are we all now 16 months later? And the rollercoaster hasn’t ended its ride yet

It’s a “home day” today – a day when I wonder what I have achieved with the 400 blogs I have now completed. You can read them all and see for yourself!

My first blog was published on 28th March 2020, just a week or so after Boris Johnson told us we must all stay at home. It was really all going to be about coronavirus and largely has been but as other interesting topics have raised their heads, so I have written about them, but doing my best to avoid party political politics and trying so far as possible to get my readers to do the thinking. I suppose my motivation was partly because web sites need new material to “get noticed” but also because I could see I would become bored stiff sitting at home, just like everyone else, perhaps just “waiting for God”.

I have become what Sky TV called a few weeks ago “one of those amateur experts on covid-19”, not because I am a doctor but because I have studied the news and statistics so closely that I almost dream about them.

Looking back now, I find that what I have created, and purely by accident, is a digest of events on a virtually day by day basis and because the blogs tend to be based on what we see today, it has become very clear how things have changed, not least the advice given by government and professionals and also the elements of uncertainty which existed in the early days and which still do exist in the more recent days as circumstances change because the change in circumstances has been huge. After all we have a major vaccination programme now which has clearly saved tens of thousands of lives. We have even started to look forward to normality although it is pretty clear it is not going to be normal as we remember it. The new normal is going to have a lot of features of its own.

Business, and ours is a site about business, has been badly hit and we have a particular interest in the hospitality business and have been studying this in detail as well. There really have been changes here with businesses in many cases closing and not being able to re-open again. It will certainly be a survival of the fittest era as in the main only established businesses with solid funding will be able to get back to work and survive. We still have a way to go with that too – commercial leases are still an unresolved area of dispute between landlords and tenants and will be until March 2022; that is how long the tendrils of covid-19’s effects on business are going to be. Actually longer than that if you think about it because confidence will have to return to the market for business to get fully re-established as it was before the crisis.

And whose fault is it anyway? Well, the many thousands who have had little regard for the rules have a lot to answer for.

And you can see it today. Suddenly we are expecting to be told we can stop all social distancing measures, all restrictions will be lifted, even face masks can be dropped. But will people just pretend nothing has happened and go back to normal? I think that is very unlikely. We are dropping our restrictions as the number of new cases is getting out of hand again and expected to increase to possibly even 100000 a day. What does this sound like after 16 months of being told to steer clear of risk, stay at home, don’t cuddle or mix with your family and above all don’t congregate in groups.

Overnight all that is going to go but with the pandemic so widespread, the chances are that avoidance of sick people will be virtually impossible and instead we shall all be relying on having been vaccinated, those of us who have, and hoping that there is not a nasty strain or variant and also hoping that we are amongst the lucky ones who will have built suitable resistance to the virus.

That’s quite a few ifs and buts. Will people deliberately walk into situations of risk or will they take it carefully and accept that from time to time they may have to take a risk they would prefer not to? I travelled between Alderney and the mainland this week and back again and there is no doubt that I felt uncomfortable quite a lot; walking along the pavement towards someone coming your way – you get off the pavement and give them a wide berth! I walked past a man standing waiting for something and he took two big steps back as I approached! Perhaps I looked infectious.

Going on an aeroplane is definitely high risk even with top air conditioning systems and masks. Only do it if you really think you have to or may be that is the level of risk you will decide to take – it is going to be your choice but with many airlines even then only if you have been double-vaxxed.

Anxiety is everywhere and rightly so because we have a long way to go yet. And on the subject of anti-vaxxers, I have in mind the biblical disease of leprosy. Actually it is not biblical at all because it still exists and is a nasty condition. But I say biblical because in those days it was not curable and that was when people crossed the street to the other side to avoid you. Like it or not, I believe anti-vaxxers will very soon find themselves in exactly the same relative position. They may be more difficult to recognise but covid passports can take care of that and anti-vaxxers are going to find themselves excluded from many places – mark my words.

So stiff upper lip; hope for the best but prepare for the worst and if you are going on a gorgeous holiday somewhere, there is still a lot to be said for places like rural Wales!

Adrian Leopard 10-07-21

Photo Daniel Morris

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Adrian Leopard & Company is the trading name of Alderney Offshore Ltd, a company registered in Alderney, Channel Islands number 1220.

Address P O Box 1027, Alderney GY9 3AS

Registered Office Seldomin, Longis Road, Alderney GY9 3YB.

Adrian Leopard & Co is represented in the UK by 3CL (UK) Ltd trading as Adrian Leopard Associates.

Telephone enquiries may be made on 08449-4-08449 or 01684-230360.

E Mail [email protected]

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