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02 December 2021

Opinion from Adrian Leopard & Co

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Schools heading back; everything is set for a rise in covid-19 cases
Adrian Leopard 174

Schools heading back; everything is set for a rise in covid-19 cases

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No let up in care and attention to avoid transmission

It feels like we are in a race against time and in this case time is measured by vaccination progress.

The end of lockdown restrictions was all based on the progress of vaccinations throughout the country and the hope that as risk of transmission increased, rate of transmission would slow up at a similar rate because of people getting their jabs. Indeed, when it was felt that the race was perhaps getting out of balance, the final lifting of restrictions was delayed.

Well there is a sense of “here we go again” because schools are returning and now school kids are being vaccinated. 16 and 17 year olds are now getting it and it is anticipated that a decision will be made to give it to children as young as 12 in order to continue with the race against time.

One wonders why the decision to vaccinate children has been delayed; it cannot surely be a case of “we didn’t think it was necessary but now we do”, can it? But scientists are saying that it is highly likely that high levels of coronavirus will be seen in schools by the end of September. It is also being made clear that real measures in school against the disease are going to be much reduced.

What will this mean for our rolling programme of numbers of new cases? The government website tells us that at the moment 88.3% of 16+ year olds have had a first dose and 78.4% a second dose. Indeed the rate of vaccinations has dropped; I would not go so far as to say it is a shadow of its former self but clearly the mad rush has passed and perhaps it is now a case of dragging the kicking and screaming to the surgeries to persuade them to get it done.

Will they? Will new rules about having to be double jabbed to go to a night club persuade young people, or even older ones at that, to get the job, or should I say jab, done?

Today’s new cases figure is uncharacteristically high for a weekend at 33196, meaning that the seven day rolling total has now passed 240000 at 240528, an increase of 5.8%. 6294 new patients have been admitted to hospital in the same period, an increase of 6.7% and that percentage has now overtaken the percentage of new cases recorded – that may be a bad sign indeed. It also looks like a seven day rolling total of a quarter of a million is not far away now.

So who should be worried about the new few weeks? Well back to the race against time and looking at where the bulk of vaccinations are – the younger people are still vulnerable. Those who have been jabbed have only had one jab so far so the risk of carrying and transmission is high at their level. These children have parents and grand-parents and these are the people who need not to catch covid. So perhaps a prudent family will adopt some evasive measures to try and reduce the incidence of transmission.

As we know it only takes one asymptomatic carrier to give it to everyone around them.

Adrian Leopard 29-08-21

Photo Mateus Campos Felipe

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Adrian Leopard & Company is the trading name of Alderney Offshore Ltd, a company registered in Alderney, Channel Islands number 1220.

Address P O Box 1027, Alderney GY9 3AS

Registered Office Seldomin, Longis Road, Alderney GY9 3YB.

Adrian Leopard & Co is represented in the UK by 3CL (UK) Ltd trading as Adrian Leopard Associates.

Telephone enquiries may be made on 08449-4-08449 or 01684-230360.

E Mail [email protected]

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