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28 November 2021

Opinion from Adrian Leopard & Co

News impacting business from Adrian Leopard & Company - Insolvency Practioners & Mediators

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Scientists not entirely agreed about how long pandemic will last and hospitality businesses in jeopardy
Adrian Leopard 110

Scientists not entirely agreed about how long pandemic will last and hospitality businesses in jeopardy

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Prosperity for hospitality is going to be dependent on the way the pandemic moves forward

A new report has come up with figures showing that the hospitality industry is still in dire straits with its revenue down 45% on the comparable period to the end of quarter 3 in 2019.

This is a very substantial drop in income and although things are gradually moving now in the right direction, there are just so many different factors operating against the hospitality industry as to be stunting its growth generally.

The difficulties include supply difficulties, a labour crisis, inflationary rises, an increase in the rate of VAT and a cap on business rates following the recent budget.

What does this all mean? In short bad for business and bad for the consumer. Prices will inevitably have to increase for the consumer and businesses will be under pressure to survive at all because of reduction in turnover and therefore insufficient revenue to meet costs. If that happens then we shall probably see many more businesses close and of course jobs will be lost – perhaps the labour crisis will be self-solving.

Unfortunately the continuing problems of the pandemic are not going away either so pressure will be on hospitality from that side too. Not only will confidence not return but we may well find we are facing new restrictions as cases continue to rise.

Professor Van-Tam, who has become a very well-known figure on the television this year and who is England’s deputy chief medical officer has said that he think things will calm down after Easter but that we can expect some pretty troubled waters over the winter. Unfortunately his optimism is not supported by Professor Tim Spector who runs a covid symptom study. Unfortunately he thinks that the present problems are going to be with us for up to another eight years. He also thinks that boosters should be offered to everyone as they reach their six months from their second.

All in all the outlook is rather bleak. Today’s new figures show new cases at 40375 making the seven day rolling total at 248549, moving upwards over the past few days but down over the seven days. That trend looks like it might change shortly. Deaths today were 145, consistently down a bit for the moment, giving the seven day figure at 1090 and new patients were 993, giving the seven day figure at 6427, continuing the downward trend there.

I think eyes will be on the new cases figure over the next week as it looks like the see-saw has started to go up again.

Adrian Leopard     12-11-21

Photo K Mitch Hodge

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