It can be seen as this week has progressed a heightening concern that Europe is now heading for a third wave – so says Germany in pointing out that even if they get on with their vaccination campaign there is no time to prevent it.

And yet Germany is not one of the countries where the growth in new cases has become really serious. The most serious European countries are Estonia, Czech Republic and Hungary. In fact Germany is pretty low down in the pecking order at the moment although their vaccination programme is way behind that of the UK.

So looking at the infamous Johns Hopkins chart, there has been a real change in look for the UK. Although the UK still ranks number five in the number of total cases, in terms of recorded new cases it has dropped way down to number 19 two days ago and number 25 yesterday. This is a huge relief and can only be attributed to the success of the vaccination campaign. Even deaths are coming down to double figures per day.

You can see the Johns Hopkins data here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

However, it does not mean that the UK is out of danger; with the rate of the pandemic increasing across Europe the increase in numbers is bound to affect the UK and furthermore it means that Europe is going to be suffering from lockdowns at a time when the UK is hopefully following its road map out of lockdown.

An article in the Guardian today has highlighted the fact that a Chinese hospital worker who had had two jabs of a vaccine has contracted the disease, the first local case since February. The Chinese press rather plays this down and furthermore it is not known which vaccine was used in this instance. The article is actually more interesting because it shows an inter-active coloured map of Europe showing the level of new cases per million over the past fortnight. It is quite frightening and shows just how bad the situation really is. This article can be seen here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/20/chinas-first-local-covid-case-since-february-had-been-vaccinated-state-media

Alongside this information, the shortage of vaccines is extremely bad news and is certainly a great deal worse news for the rest of Europe than it is for the UK with vaccination programmes barely lurching along. Moreover things seem to change with violent swings of the pendulum, for example Sweden was regarded as pretty safe at one time and now it is in the purple league – second from the top.

Another question will now be forming on people’s lips. What about our summer holidays in Europe? Well it is not good, is it? Are the British public even going to be able to go overseas if new lockdowns and increased numbers are the case? More to the point, how is the British government going to react to people returning from these countries? If it gets really bad then hotel quarantining may become the rule rather than the exception. What a risk!

So perhaps staycation is now getting another shot in the arm; it sounds like it will be a lot safer than risking a foreign trip.

If ever there were a time to be even more careful, it is now.

Adrian Leopard 20-03-21

Photo Lorena Kelly