19 May 2022

Opinion from Adrian Leopard & Co

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Trend of new cases remains unclear
Adrian Leopard 294

Trend of new cases remains unclear

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Figures can be rather misleading as this week’s numbers show

Figures have a funny way of misleading people if they are not read correctly.

The new cases published by the government over the past three days for the UK have been 28412, 27335 and today hot off the press 25161. Now when I was at school I did my readin’, writin’ and rithmetic and those figures show a clear reduction in numbers. Great we say, the numbers of new cases are going down.

But the trend actually has gone up; it went up yesterday and has gone up again today, now showing a 5.2% rise in new cases over the past seven days. Do you see what I mean? This is the phenomenon of a rollercoaster set of figures which seem to be unable to settle down.

The increase in UK deaths over the past week is 614, a 14.8% increase over the previous seven days. The one breath of fresh air in all of this is the number of patients admitted in the past seven days is 5335 which is a decrease of 15.8%.

So what can we deduce from these figures? Well new cases are actually now on the increase just slightly but that could be reversed if the trend of the past few days is maintained. Caution however – we are looking at weekend figures which are normally down anyway so come tomorrow, there may be a beefy increase to show. Deaths tend to lag somewhat so the rise may not be indicative of a worsening trend; actually it gives nothing away but the drop in admissions may well be indicative of an overall reduction in cases.

However there is a growing public undercurrent that things are going to get worse and so many have said they anticipate a further lockdown come October. Of course this is pure speculation at the moment and we shall only get the answer to that one when it happens.

To put it all into perspective, the total number of recorded cases throughout the world has now passed 200 million and world deaths 4.3 million. The UK is sixth in the league of cases in the world; we just don’t seem to be able to throw off this mantle.

We thought you would like this rather nice photo today to imagine you are away on holiday in a covid-free location!

Adrian Leopard 09-08-21

Photo Steve Halama

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Adrian Leopard & Company is the trading name of Alderney Offshore Ltd, a company registered in Alderney, Channel Islands number 1220.

Address P O Box 1027, Alderney GY9 3AS

Registered Office Seldomin, Longis Road, Alderney GY9 3YB.

Adrian Leopard & Co is represented in the UK by 3CL (UK) Ltd trading as Adrian Leopard Associates.

Telephone enquiries may be made on 08449-4-08449 or 01684-230360.

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