19 May 2022

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Christmas now thought to be at risk - say experts
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Christmas now thought to be at risk - say experts

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Experts are now advising people to take their own defensive actions against catching covid

The call from experts to the government to do something gets louder and this is now coupled with the risk of a lockdown Christmas.

It is not likely that the British people will be very impressed if they have to sacrifice Christmas again this year but if the pandemic gets worse without any restraint, this is what experts are suggesting will happen.

As we know only too well, the government decided to lift all restrictions in England and told the people that they had to look after themselves. The problem with that is that probably most people are not really capable of managing that very effectively. As they say, the spirit is willing but the flesh is weak and the notion that we were given the “all clear” back in July seems to have stuck. How wrong that impression was and remains.

So experts are now coming on to television to remind us how to steer clear of covid. Let it be clear that it is not being said that it will be okay for everyone to catch it – far from it. The government is adamant that its first line of defence, and possibly last, is to have your jabs and your booster if you are entitled to one. The experts beg to differ.

We are hearing calls like avoid public transport; if you must use public transport wear a mask. In some places that is required anyway but is there any harm in doing so? If you are going into a shop, wear a mask. Remember that wearing a mask is more for the safety and well-being of your fellow man than yourself – is that not a good end to pursue?

If you are going out to meet friends or a group of people or a function perhaps, think about taking a lateral flow test first. The purpose of this? It will tell you if you are carrying the virus and is 90% reliable in the case of persons carrying a sufficient viral load to transmit the disease. This is to protect those you meet – again for the well-being of your fellow man. The tests, after all, are free!

Why is Christmas said to be under threat? The problem is quite simply the increase in numbers of cases. The ONS now says they estimate that 1.1 million people in the country had the disease last week, that ending 16th October. In terms of percentage of population that was 1.79% [1 in 55] in England, 2.31% [1 in 45] in Wales, .76% [1 in 103] in Northern Ireland and 1.14% [1 in 90] in Scotland. New cases have continued to increase at over 40000 a day since then.

In fact the new cases recorded today amount to 44985, making the seven day rollup figure now 333465, a figure which is slowly creeping up. The last seven days have seen 934 more deaths and 6561 new patient admissions.

What this means in blunt is that if you go to any event the chances are that 1 in 55 of those present will be carriers of the disease and probably not know it. This is more significant than perhaps people realise.

On 16th October, the seven day new cases rollup figure was 289515. So by applying a simple mathematical equation, we can make an estimate of the current figure and that would bring an estimate today of about 1 in 48 people with the disease.

So the best way of steering clear of the disease is of course to stay at home. Of course this is not always possible so it would make sense to consider whether in fact it is necessary to go out while the present deteriorating situation continues.

In the meanwhile we feature a beautiful picture of the day – time to start getting ready for the autumn.

Adrian Leopard 23-10-21

Photo Simon Joseph

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